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By David and Claudia Ashworth, AncientCityStays, Coldwell Banker Vanguard. Published November 2026. Data: IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration files, tax years 2021 to 2022 and 2022 to 2023.
St. Johns County, Florida, which includes St. Augustine, Ponte Vedra, and Nocatee, has been one of the fastest-growing counties in the state for more than a decade. We wanted to answer a simple question with public data: where are the new residents actually coming from? Using IRS tax return migration records, which track households whose filing address changed from one county to another, we mapped the origins of people moving into St. Johns County.
- About 26,400 people moved into St. Johns County from elsewhere in the United States in tax year 2022 to 2023. About 13,600 came from outside Florida.
- New York was the top origin state for the second year running, with 1,070 people (1,362 the year before).
- Long Island leads every county in the nation outside Florida. Suffolk County sent 267 people and Nassau 158. Together that is 425 people, about 40 percent of all New York movers.
- The greater New York metro, including Long Island and North Jersey, sent at least 1,530 people, more than any other metro area.
- Texas more than doubled, from 214 to 453 people, while New Jersey (down 38 percent), Illinois (down 47 percent) and Maryland (down 38 percent) fell.
- Net migration into the county peaked at 14,516 in filing year 2020 and remained above 10,000 in 2023.
Top origin states
New York, California, and New Jersey were the three largest out-of-state sources in both years. Counts are people, meaning all persons in tax households that moved.
| State | 2022 to 2023 | 2021 to 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 1,070 | 1,362 | -21% |
| California | 641 | 769 | -17% |
| New Jersey | 561 | 905 | -38% |
| Georgia | 472 | 606 | -22% |
| Texas | 453 | 214 | +112% |
| Virginia | 398 | 496 | -20% |
| Maryland | 326 | 529 | -38% |
| Pennsylvania | 288 | 379 | -24% |
| North Carolina | 275 | 232 | +19% |
| Colorado | 235 | 307 | -23% |
| Illinois | 233 | 442 | -47% |
| Tennessee | 198 | 208 | -5% |
| Connecticut | 184 | 215 | -14% |
Top origin counties outside Florida
At the county level, two Long Island counties stand out. Suffolk ranks first nationally, and Suffolk households also reported among the highest total incomes. Cook County, Illinois, which includes Chicago, sent fewer people than Suffolk but reported slightly more total adjusted gross income.
| County | People | Households | Total AGI | AGI per household |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk County, NY | 267 | 116 | $20.3M | $175K |
| San Diego County, CA | 207 | 87 | $11.3M | $130K |
| Cook County, IL | 175 | 81 | $21.6M | $267K |
| Nassau County, NY | 158 | 66 | $10.9M | $165K |
| Fairfax County, VA | 155 | 66 | $12.6M | $191K |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 147 | 76 | $11.1M | $146K |
| Los Angeles County, CA | 137 | 76 | $12.1M | $159K |
| Mecklenburg County, NC | 133 | 66 | $9.4M | $142K |
| Bergen County, NJ | 122 | 51 | $13.7M | $269K |
| Monmouth County, NJ | 119 | 54 | $7.7M | $143K |
| Cobb County, GA | 116 | 63 | $7.9M | $125K |
| Fulton County, GA | 111 | 69 | $13.9M | $201K |
| Orange County, CA | 111 | 54 | $15.9M | $294K |
| Westchester County, NY | 111 | 44 | $7.5M | $170K |
Top origin metro areas
Grouping counties into metro areas shows the Northeast corridor dominates, but the Sun Belt is a growing source. Atlanta (472 across six metro counties) is the second largest metro feeder, well ahead of the DC suburbs, and Dallas-Fort Worth now outranks Chicago. Metro totals are minimum counts because some counties in each metro fall below the IRS reporting threshold. Los Angeles and Orange County would add about 87 more people if neighboring Riverside County were included.
| Metro area | People (minimum) |
|---|---|
| New York metro (incl. Long Island and North Jersey) | 1,530 |
| Atlanta (Cobb, Fulton, Forsyth, Gwinnett, DeKalb and Cherokee) | 472 |
| Washington, DC suburbs | 370 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | 267 |
| Los Angeles and Orange County | 248 |
| Chicago | 233 |
| Philadelphia suburbs | 221 |
| Baltimore and Annapolis | 220 |
| San Diego | 207 |
| Denver | 174 |
| Boston | 155 |
| Phoenix | 147 |
| Hampton Roads | 134 |
| Charlotte | 133 |
| Nashville | 124 |
Moves from within Florida
Roughly half of all domestic movers came from elsewhere in Florida. The biggest in-state feeders were neighboring Duval County (Jacksonville), Clay County, and Flagler County, followed by Broward and Palm Beach counties in South Florida.
Net migration over time
Net migration is people moving in minus people moving out, all origins, by IRS filing year. The county has gained residents through migration every year in the series, with a sharp step up starting in 2017 and a peak during the 2020 and 2021 pandemic years.
| Filing year | Net migration (people) |
|---|---|
| 2012 | 5,257 |
| 2013 | 6,765 |
| 2014 | 7,336 |
| 2015 | 3,407 |
| 2016 | 7,414 |
| 2017 | 12,541 |
| 2018 | 9,822 |
| 2019 | 10,252 |
| 2020 | 14,516 |
| 2021 | 14,144 |
| 2022 | 12,685 |
| 2023 | 10,642 |
What this means for the county
The people arriving tend to be established households. New York households moving here averaged about $140,000 in adjusted gross income, and county-level figures for places such as Suffolk, Cook, Bergen and Orange County, California, are higher still. That lines up with the county's profile in the Census American Community Survey (2019 to 2023): a median home value of $457,600, median household income of $106,169, and an 82 percent homeownership rate. The data says where people come from, not why, but the pattern is consistent with buyers leaving high-cost, high-tax metros for a coastal county with strong schools.
For a practical guide for one of the largest groups in this data, read Moving from New York to St. Augustine and St. Johns County.
Methodology and data notes
- Source. IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration data, inflow files for St. Johns County, Florida (FIPS 12109). Tax year 2022 to 2023 compares addresses on returns filed in 2022 and 2023.
- People. "People" counts all persons in moving tax households (filers plus dependents). "Households" counts returns.
- Minimum counts. The IRS suppresses county-to-county flows under 20 households. About 7,300 of the roughly 13,600 out-of-state movers are not attributed to a specific county, so state and metro figures built from county rows are minimums. States with many small flows, such as Ohio and Michigan, are undercounted at the county level.
- AGI. Adjusted gross income reported by moving households in the year of the move.
- Metro areas. Metro totals add up the named counties in each metro.
- Other sources. The 12-year trend and home price index come from the HowAmericaMoves.com summary of IRS and FHFA data. Home value, income and homeownership figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey.
- Not covered. People who do not file federal tax returns, and the reasons people moved.
For reporters
You are welcome to cite this study with a link to this page. We can provide the county-level data for your market and comment on what we are seeing locally. Contact David Ashworth, Coldwell Banker Vanguard, at 904-909-8904 or contact us.
How to cite this study
AncientCityStays (Coldwell Banker Vanguard). "Where St. Johns County's Newcomers Come From: 2026 Migration Study." November 2026. https://ancientcitystays.com/st-johns-county-migration-study. Based on IRS Statistics of Income county-to-county migration data.
Sources
- IRS Statistics of Income, Migration Data: irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 to 2023 5-year estimates, St. Johns County, Florida: census.gov QuickFacts
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